Tad Hogg and Bernardo A. Huberman
HP Laboratories
Palo Alto, CA 94304
Abstract
We describe a new mechanism that induces accurate forecasts within
an organization while reducting moral hazards and the stigma
associated with negative opinions. It is based on the notion of
identity escrow, whereby the identity of a forecaster is kept
anonymous and only revealed when a number of his subordinates detect
an attitude that is contrary to the interests of the organization. An
analysis of the relative payoffs between forecasting and production
shows that through the use of identity of escrows one can adjust the
size of the prediction group so as to ensure both production and
accurate forecasts.
Full paper: moral.pdf
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